Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
64% | 36% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
64% | 36% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: SU (-1.5) vs Shark Attack (+1.5) | 64% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 63% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 63% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 63% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 48% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 48% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 48% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 47% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 35% |
| Game 1 Winner | 23% |
| Game 2 Winner | 21% |
| Match Winner | 13% |
Market context
Shark Attack face SU Esports in the TCL Play-Ins Mid bracket round 2 on 12 August, with the 22% implied probability suggesting the market views them as clear underdogs in this best-of-three fixture. The scheduling remains firm at 10:30 AM ET, with settlement locked at 20:30 UTC the same day—a tight window that leaves minimal room for fixture delays without triggering the 50-50 resolution clause.
Turkish regional League of Legends has historically produced volatile upset potential in play-in stages, where roster cohesion and meta adaptation often matter more than raw ranking. SU Esports' positioning as favourites reflects either established roster stability or recent tournament performance, but the 22% floor for Shark Attack suggests meaningful uncertainty rather than dismissal. Play-in formats across regional scenes frequently see teams exploit unfamiliar opposition or capitalise on patch-specific champion pools that favour their preparation.
Traders should monitor TCL broadcast schedules and any last-minute roster confirmations through the Turkish esports community channels in the 48 hours before match time. Recent patch notes affecting champion viability—particularly for mid and jungle roles—could shift preparation advantages. Any announcement of substitute players or coaching changes would materially alter the matchup dynamics. The tight settlement window means technical delays or extended series length carry real resolution risk; matches running past 19:30 UTC could trigger ambiguity depending on completion status.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade LoL: Shark Attack vs SU Esports (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins on Prediction Today
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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