Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: CPD (-1.5) vs Maryville University (+1.5) | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 90% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
Market context
Maryville University and Cupid Esports were due to play a best-of-three in the North American Challengers League group stage on 31 July at 21:00 UTC, and the latest listings still show the fixture as the scheduled event rather than a completed result. With the market sitting at **0% YES**, the immediate read is that traders are either treating the matchup as effectively gone or awaiting confirmation of a non-standard settlement outcome rather than pricing a live contest.
The historical frame is thin, because this is a first recorded meeting between the teams. Maryville bring the stronger recent record in the available summaries: one match database says they had won four of their last five, while another shows a longer stretch of mixed but still competitive BO3 results, including wins over Blue Otter, CCG Esports and Dorado Gaming. Cupid’s profile is harder to assess from public records, but the league entry confirms they joined the summer split after replacing Supernova on 22 June, which makes their current group-stage form especially relevant to any pre-match pricing. Maryville’s broader programme also has a proven tier-two pedigree, having won the 2024 NACL title.
For today’s outlook, the main catalysts are administrative rather than strategic: whether the series is formally played, delayed, or recorded as a no-contest. The settlement rules matter because a cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days resolves 50-50, so any schedule change, server issue, roster forfeit, or organiser announcement can matter more than draft strength here. Public match pages still showed the fixture as upcoming with no stream listed, which is the key status to watch when judging whether the market can move from dead pricing to an actual winner.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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