LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Platform comparison

Market context

Invictus Gaming and Ninjas in Pyjamas are due to play a best-of-three in the LPL Group Nirvana, with the market sitting at a **56%** crowd-implied chance for IG. The price is close enough to a coin-flip to suggest traders are weighing IG’s broader record against NIP’s ability to take maps in this pairing, rather than treating either side as a clear favourite.[2][8][12]

That framing is consistent with the recent head-to-head pattern. In the last 17 recorded meetings, NIP lead the series count 9-8, but IG have won three of the last six and took the most recent televised meetings in 2026, including a 2-0 in Split 2 and a 3-1 in the Split 1 knockout stage.[19][10][11] More generally, the matchup has tended to swing by patch, roster and stage context rather than by a stable long-run edge, which helps explain why the market is only modestly in IG’s favour despite their stronger recent results in some series.[19][18]

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: confirmation that the match starts on schedule, any late roster or substitution news, and whether the LPL keeps the fixture in the expected slot on 6 August at 09:00 UTC.[8][14] Recent match listings still show the game as upcoming, but no live stream was available on the pre-match pages, so final settlement will depend on the match actually being played and completed under the market rules.[1][2][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.