LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Dplus KIA face BNK FEARX in a League of Legends Champions Korea best-of-three match scheduled for 23 May at 04:00 ET. The 72% implied probability favours Dplus KIA, reflecting their standing as a higher-seeded or more established roster within the LCK structure. No material roster changes or injury announcements have emerged in the preceding 48 hours that would shift the baseline expectation.

Dplus KIA's historical performance against lower-ranked LCK opposition provides the primary frame for the current odds. Teams seeded or ranked significantly higher in Korean regional play have historically converted such advantages into wins at rates between 70–80%, though early-season matches carry higher variance than playoff fixtures. BNK FEARX would need either a strategic innovation or execution advantage to overturn the gap, outcomes that occur but remain the exception rather than the norm in structured league play.

Traders should monitor the official LCK schedule confirmation through 22 May, as any last-minute roster substitutions or technical delays could alter match conditions. Patch notes released before the match window may also shift champion viability in ways that favour one team's preparation depth. The settlement window closes at 14:00 UTC on 23 May, allowing approximately ten hours after the scheduled start time for the match to complete; delays beyond 7 days without resolution trigger a 50-50 settlement, a tail risk that remains low given LCK's operational consistency.

Methodology

We track LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.