Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
Market context
7REX’s last meeting with RMD Gaming already leaned strongly towards 7REX, and the current market is even more emphatic, with the crowd pricing a 100% YES outcome. That leaves little room for ordinary match uncertainty: in practice, the only meaningful downside is not a competitive upset but a non-standard settlement outcome such as cancellation, a tie, or a prolonged delay beyond the seven-day window. In the earlier Split 1 encounter, 7REX were the clear pre-match favourite and won 1-0, which is the most relevant comparable case when reading today’s price action.[4][6][8]
The recent form picture also helps explain why 7REX has been treated as the stronger side. Coverage of the earlier split described 7REX as arriving off a three-match winning run, while RMD Gaming sat near the bottom with only one win from six, and later split pages still showed 7REX ahead on win expectations in head-to-head pricing.[2][7] For traders, the main catalysts now are simple: whether the fixture is confirmed as scheduled, whether a lobby appears and the game begins on time, and whether any late roster or competitive administration notice affects completion. The match listing shows the BO1 was scheduled for 4 August, but no stream was listed on one recent match page, which is a reminder that broadcast absence does not by itself imply settlement risk if the game is played.[5]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade LoL: 7REX vs RMD Gaming (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante … on Prediction Today
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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