Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

Team Liquid face Team Yandex in a best-of-three Dota 2 encounter during The International group stage on 13 August 2026. The current 100% implied probability for match completion suggests traders are pricing near-certainty that the fixture will be played as scheduled, with minimal concern about cancellation or postponement within the seven-day window from the original 10:00 PM ET start time.

Historical precedent from The International tournaments shows group stage matches rarely cancel outright, though delays have occurred due to technical issues or player health concerns. When disruptions happen at Valve's flagship event, they typically result in rescheduling rather than outright cancellation—the 2023 International saw several matches shifted by hours but ultimately completed. Team Liquid's consistent participation record across recent Internationals (2022, 2023, 2024) and Team Yandex's qualification status both reduce the probability of withdrawal. The 100% settlement price reflects this structural reliability more than any specific confidence in either team's performance.

Traders should monitor official The International schedule updates from Valve and PGL, the event organiser, particularly regarding venue logistics or player roster confirmations in the 48 hours before the match. Any announcement of stand-in players or technical infrastructure issues at the venue could shift completion probabilities. The settlement window closes 13 August at 08:00 UTC, allowing an eight-hour buffer after the scheduled start time for match resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.