Dota 2: Team Resilience vs OG (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

Team Resilience face OG in The International's group stage on 14 August 2026, a best-of-three fixture scheduled for 1:00 AM ET. The current 100% implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in one outcome or minimal trading volume at this early stage—typical for esports matches scheduled months ahead. No material developments have shifted market sentiment in the past 48 hours; the probability likely reflects initial seeding assumptions or algorithmic positioning rather than fresh information about team form or roster changes.

Historical precedent suggests group-stage matches at The International rarely cancel outright, though scheduling delays occur occasionally due to technical issues or unforeseen circumstances. OG's track record as a two-time champion (2018, 2019) typically commands respect in early-stage markets, though their recent competitive standing varies considerably between seasons. Team Resilience's qualification itself signals sufficient credibility to reach the tournament, but their relative standing against OG's pedigree would normally create meaningful odds separation—the flat 100% reading suggests either illiquidity or a data anomaly rather than genuine market consensus.

Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any official schedule adjustments from Valve in the coming weeks. Pre-tournament scrims and bootcamp results, often shared informally by team insiders on social media, occasionally shift sentiment once matches draw closer. The 7-day postponement window means delays beyond 1:00 AM ET on 21 August would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. Watch for announcements regarding player availability or visa complications, which have historically affected International participation.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.