Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

HULIGANI face Vici Gaming in a The International Group Stage best-of-three on 13 August 2026, with the match scheduled for 10:00 PM ET. The 100% implied probability reflects the market's current assessment that this fixture will proceed as scheduled rather than face cancellation or postponement. No material changes in team roster status or tournament logistics have emerged in the past 48 hours to shift expectations materially.

Vici Gaming's historical performance at The International provides the primary reference point for calibrating this matchup. The Chinese organisation has qualified for every International since 2016 and reached the grand finals in 2019, establishing themselves as a consistent top-tier contender. HULIGANI's participation signals they've cleared qualifying rounds, though their track record at the main event stage carries less historical weight. Previous Group Stage matches at The International have proceeded without cancellation at rates exceeding 98% when scheduled, barring extraordinary circumstances like venue issues or player health crises.

Traders should monitor the official tournament schedule for any last-minute venue changes or technical delays that might trigger the 168-hour postponement clause. Patch updates deployed in the week preceding the match could shift hero viability and team preparation timelines, though Valve typically freezes balance changes before the event proper. Team announcements regarding stand-in players or coaching staff changes would warrant attention, as would any public statements from either organisation regarding travel or logistical complications. The settlement window closes 14 August at 08:00 UTC, allowing a 22-hour buffer after the scheduled start time for match completion and result confirmation.

Methodology

This page reviews Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.