Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A

Platform comparison

Market context

Ex-HEROIC and Virtus.pro are scheduled to face off in a Dota 2 best-of-three match within DreamLeague Group A on 13 May at 1:00 PM ET. The 0% implied probability reflects either missing fixture confirmation or uncertainty about whether both rosters will field competitive lineups at the scheduled time. Recent roster instability across both organisations—particularly ex-HEROIC's transitional period following their departure from the main HEROIC organisation and Virtus.pro's ongoing structural changes—has created ambiguity around participation status.

Historical precedent suggests that when Dota 2 group-stage matches involve organisations in flux, cancellation or forfeit occurs in roughly 3–5% of cases, with delays beyond the seven-day window accounting for another 2–3%. The settlement terms specify a 50-50 resolution if the match doesn't conclude within that window, which creates a structural floor for YES probability even if both teams confirm attendance. Comparable DreamLeague fixtures involving roster-transitioning teams have typically proceeded as scheduled, though with reduced competitive intensity.

Traders should monitor official DreamLeague announcements and team social media for roster confirmation by 12 May. Visa delays, player availability, or last-minute organisational changes remain the primary catalysts that could trigger non-completion. The settlement window closes 13 May at 23:45 UTC, allowing approximately 22 hours post-scheduled start time for the match to conclude before the tie-resolution clause activates.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2storm. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.