Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 10% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
1win and Vici Gaming are back on the schedule after Vici beat 1win 2-1 in their earlier July meeting, which is the clearest recent reference point for how this series is being priced.[7][11][13] The market is currently at **0% YES**, so traders are effectively treating the “more markets” listing as having no confirmed edge yet, with the settlement window tied to the end of the series rather than any single map state.
The recent form context is mixed but useful. 1win have shown a volatile July run, including wins over LGD Gaming and Virtus.pro, but also a 0-2 loss to Team Yandex and a 1-1 draw with OG.[11][12] Vici have been sharper against stronger opposition, beating Team Falcons 2-0 and MOUZ 2-0 before later losing 0-2 to Team Yandex and BetBoom Team, which suggests their ceiling is high but their floor is still moving.[11] In head-to-head terms, the only listed recent meeting favoured Vici, and that usually matters in a best-of-two where even one map swing can decide several ancillary markets.[7][15]
The main catalysts are simple: confirmed line-ups, any delay or schedule shift, and whether the best-of-two starts on time at the listed 9:00 AM ET slot.[1][12] Live match pages already exist across multiple score trackers, so any late roster or lobby update should be visible quickly if one team replaces a player or the series order changes.[1][2][12] For traders, the key read is whether Vici can reproduce the cleaner teamfighting shown in recent wins, or whether 1win’s more erratic but occasionally explosive map profile creates a split result that opens “more markets” outcomes.[11][12]
Methodology
This page reviews Dota 2: 1win vs Vici Gaming - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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