Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: EAC (-1.5) vs XCLAN (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-6.5) vs XCLAN (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-6.5) vs XCLAN (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-6.5) vs XCLAN (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-9.5) vs XCLAN (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
Market context
XCLAN and Esport Academy Copenhagen are listed for a best-of-three in Stake Pulse Beat I Group A, but the match had not started in the latest schedule snapshot and the market is still sitting at a crowd-implied **0% YES**, which points to no live-priced expectation of a completed result yet.[1][2][15] For a market resolving only on a winner, that means the immediate issue is not strength on paper but whether the fixture actually gets played to completion before the settlement window closes.[2]
Recent comparable form gives Esport Academy Copenhagen a mixed baseline: Escharts shows a 3-9 record across 12 matches, while other match pages and odds trackers have also described them as uneven but active in recent online CS2 play.[7][16] XCLAN have fewer readily available public stats in the search set, and the head-to-head record on CS2Bet is shown as having no previous meetings on record, so there is little historical direct evidence to lean on for this pairing.[2] In practice, that makes market reading depend more on event execution than on any established rivalry trend.
The main catalysts are straightforward: official start-time changes, a late bracket or elimination adjustment, and any indication the series is delayed, abandoned, or moved outside the market’s seven-day resolution rule.[2] Because the market resolves 50-50 if the match is not played, ties, or a winner is not determined within seven days, traders should watch for organiser updates and live score listings rather than treating the scheduled time as fixed.[2] The available fixtures pages still show the match as not started, so the key question is whether it begins and reaches a completed BO3 before the window closes.[1][2]
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: XCLAN vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group A across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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