Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NEW VISION (-9.5) vs ex-RUSTEC (+9.5) | 99% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NEW VISION (-3.5) vs ex-RUSTEC (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NEW VISION (-6.5) vs ex-RUSTEC (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Winner | 65% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 63% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUSTEC (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUSTEC (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map Handicap: NV (-1.5) vs ex-RUSTEC (+1.5) | 50% |
| Match Winner | 43% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUSTEC (-6.5) vs NEW VISION (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUSTEC (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: ex-RUSTEC (-1.5) vs NEW VISION (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
The immediate driver is that this CCT Europe Series #6 group-stage match has reached its Round 5 slot, with ex-RUSTEC and NEW VISION both still in the Swiss pool and the event running through 8 August. The market is pricing ex-RUSTEC at **72%**, which is broadly consistent with a team that already has a clearer path in a late-round BO3 rather than an early volatility spot, but it still leaves meaningful upset risk if the veto or form on the day turns against them.[2][6]
Historically, CCT Europe Swiss stages can be read through recent round-by-round results rather than long-run team reputation, because the same event has already produced live BO3s and tightly timed fixtures across late July and early August. NEW VISION have been active in this group, including a live BO3 against Inner Circle Academy on 2 August, which suggests they are not arriving cold; meanwhile ex-RUSTEC’s listing in the Round 5 table indicates they are deep enough into the stage that map pool and scheduling load matter more than headline name value.[1][2][10]
For traders, the key catalysts are the official Round 5 start confirmation, any schedule changes around the 17:00 CEST slot, and whether either side posts a late roster or walkover update before load-in. CCT listings and match trackers show the event is still active and updating, so the main binary risk is not the bracket itself but whether the fixture is played as scheduled or affected by delay, forfeiture, or a start-time change that could push resolution mechanics into the market’s exception rules.[4][5][6]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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