Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction Today Pick polygram.ink |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Prediction Today → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Prediction Today → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Prediction Today → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Prediction Today → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Prediction Today → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Today.
Active sub-markets
| Match Winner | 56% PARIVISION | 45% Monte |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% Over | 52% Under |
| Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) | 31% PARIVISION | 70% Monte |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) | 34% PARIVISION | 66% Monte |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% Over | 51% Under |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% Over | 51% Under |
Market context
PARIVISION face Monte in a Round 2 best-of-three at IEM Cologne Major Stage 3, with the match scheduled for 12 June at 07:30 ET. The 56% crowd probability favours PARIVISION, reflecting their positioning as the marginally stronger side in this mid-tier matchup. Recent form data and roster stability will determine whether that lean holds or compresses further as match day approaches.
Comparable Major-stage encounters between similarly-ranked teams typically settle within a 45–60% range for the favoured squad, particularly when neither side carries recent tournament momentum or significant personnel changes. PARIVISION's historical performance at Cologne events and Monte's consistency in European qualifiers provide the baseline for current odds. Teams at this stage often feature mixed recent results—neither commanding dominance nor clear vulnerability—which naturally produces tighter probabilities than headline-tier clashes.
The settlement window closes at 17:30 UTC on 12 June, leaving a ten-hour window after the scheduled start time. Traders should monitor ESL's official schedule for any delays or format changes; fixture congestion at Major stages occasionally triggers rescheduling. Roster confirmations and last-minute stand-ins, announced typically 24–48 hours before play, can shift perception of team strength. Watch for any announcement from either organisation regarding player availability or coaching changes, as these frequently move odds in prediction markets covering esports qualifiers. Stream availability and broadcast delays can also affect settlement timing, particularly if technical issues extend the match beyond the initial window.
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?
- Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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