Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs

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Market context

The match has now been played, and the live score record shows Team Nemesis lost 1-2 to TDK in the CCT Europe 2026 Series #4 playoffs, which is why the crowd-implied 0% YES is now aligned with an already-settled-looking outcome rather than a live toss-up.[1] Dust2.us also listed the fixture as a BO3 playoff meeting, with Nemesis and TDK close enough in ranking to suggest a competitive pairing rather than a major mismatch.[5]

The best comparable read comes from their recent head-to-heads: TDK has already beaten Nemesis in a longer playoff-style series, including a 3-2 win in ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Finals, while earlier Liquipedia records show Nemesis dropping other playoff series in CCT Europe play.[2][4] That pattern matters because prediction markets on these second-tier European CS2 ties often move less on team name recognition and more on whether one side has already shown it can close out vetoes and deciders against the same opponent.[2][4]

For traders still watching the settlement risk, the key catalyst is simply whether the reported result is final and officially captured before the market window closes, since the market rules allow 50-50 only if the match is not played, ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond seven days.[1] With GosuGamers already listing a completed 1:2 result, the main dependency is confirmation that no protest, reversal, or format correction changes the match outcome.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.