Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Monte and Legacy meet in a best-of-one elimination match at IEM Cologne's Major Stage 2 on 7 June, with the winner advancing and the loser eliminated from the tournament. The 37% implied probability for Monte reflects Legacy's recent form and seeding advantage, though the single-map format introduces volatility that can favour either side depending on map pool alignment and preparation depth.

Legacy have demonstrated stronger consistency in recent Valve-sponsored events, whilst Monte have shown capability against top-tier opposition but with less predictable results across different map selections. In BO1 formats at Major-level tournaments, historical data suggests the higher-seeded or more recently successful team wins roughly 60–65% of the time, which aligns with the current market pricing favouring Legacy. However, Monte's qualification to this stage indicates they've cleared earlier hurdles, and map-specific preparation can override broader form metrics in single-elimination play.

Traders should monitor official ESL announcements regarding final map selection, which typically occurs 24–48 hours before the match. Roster changes, recent scrim results, or injury reports affecting either team could shift the probability meaningfully. The settlement window closes at 18:30 UTC on 7 June; any delay beyond that date without a completed result triggers a 50-50 resolution. Given the tournament's schedule and infrastructure, cancellation risk is minimal, but technical issues during play remain a low-probability settlement wildcard.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.