Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: DNT (-1.5) vs ex-MANA eSports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Donstu Esports (-3.5) vs ex-MANA eSports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Donstu Esports (-3.5) vs ex-MANA eSports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Donstu Esports (-3.5) vs ex-MANA eSports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Counter-Strike best-of-three between ex-MANA eSports and Donstu Esports in the NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B is scheduled for 13 July at 1:00PM ET, with settlement closing that same evening. The 100% implied probability reflects either exceptionally high confidence in match completion or minimal trading activity, a distinction worth examining given the tournament's infrastructure and regional context.
NODWIN Gaming's Indian esports events have historically maintained reliable scheduling, though play-in tournaments occasionally experience delays when matches run longer than anticipated. The best-of-three format itself introduces scheduling risk—if both teams split maps one apiece, the deciding map could push the match beyond the settlement window depending on map length and technical pauses. Previous NODWIN events have generally resolved without cancellation, but regional internet stability and venue access remain variables in Indian esports tournaments that Western-based competitions typically mitigate more consistently.
Traders should monitor NODWIN's official schedule updates in the 24 hours before the match, particularly any announcements regarding venue changes or staggered start times if multiple matches are queued. The settlement window closes at 23:15 UTC on 13 July, providing roughly 22 hours from the scheduled start time—sufficient for a standard best-of-three unless technical issues or administrative delays occur. Any postponement announcement would likely emerge through NODWIN's social channels or the Clutch Series official pages, as these typically precede formal market notifications.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Donstu Esports (B… on Prediction Today
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