Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: Keyd (-1.5) vs paiN Academy (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
Keyd faces paiN Academy in a Counter-Strike quarterfinal within the CCT South America Series 2 Playoffs, scheduled for 23 May at 3:00PM ET. The 100% crowd probability reflects either exceptional confidence in Keyd's superiority or minimal liquidity in the market, both of which warrant scrutiny given the settlement window extends to 24 May—allowing only marginal buffer for delays or technical issues that commonly affect regional esports fixtures.
Keyd has established itself as a consistent performer in South American Counter-Strike, whilst paiN Academy represents the developmental pathway of the paiN organisation. Historical CCT tournaments have seen favourites at this probability level occasionally falter due to map selection variance and individual player form fluctuations. The 7-day delay clause in the settlement terms is material; regional tournaments frequently encounter scheduling conflicts or technical disruptions that push matches beyond their original windows, which would trigger a 50-50 resolution regardless of competitive outcome.
Traders should monitor official CCT communications for any pre-match roster confirmations or venue changes in the 48 hours preceding the fixture. Keyd's recent form in qualifying rounds and any last-minute substitutions would shift the underlying match dynamics, though the market's current pricing suggests these factors are already priced in. The absence of meaningful counter-probability suggests limited market depth rather than consensus certainty.
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: Keyd vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Playoffs across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
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