Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Endless Journey (-3.5) vs Inner Circle Academy (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Endless Journey (-3.5) vs Inner Circle Academy (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: EJ (-1.5) vs Inner Circle Academy (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Endless Journey (-3.5) vs Inner Circle Academy (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
Inner Circle Academy lost their Best of 3 match against Endless Journey in the CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #5 Play-In on 20 July, with the final score recorded as 1–2 and later confirmed as 0–2 across multiple trackers [1][5]. The match has already concluded, meaning the underlying event is settled and the 100% YES probability for Inner Circle Academy winning is factually incorrect given the result.
Historical precedents in prediction markets show that when a match result is publicly confirmed on major scoreboards like GosuGamers and BO3.gg, markets typically resolve to the actual winner within hours, regardless of lingering crowd sentiment [1][5]. In similar esports cases where a team lost but liquidity remained skewed toward them due to delayed information, prices corrected sharply once official results were verified, often leaving late traders with significant losses.
Traders should monitor the official CCT Europe tournament bracket and settlement announcements to confirm the market’s resolution to Endless Journey, as the delay between the live result and market update is the primary catalyst for price correction [8]. No further match announcements or schedule dependencies exist, since the game is complete; the only remaining dependency is the platform’s administrative confirmation of the result, which standard practice suggests will occur promptly given the clear 0–2 outcome [1][5].
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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