Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: IMP (-1.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-6.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-9.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+9.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-6.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+6.5) | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-6.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-9.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
Market context
Imperial’s opening-round meeting with Procyon Gaming is still framed as a straight BO3, and the market is effectively pricing a near-certain Imperial win rather than a close series. The latest listings continue to show the match as scheduled for BetBoom Storm Group Stage play, with Imperial repeatedly installed as the clear favourite and community forecasts heavily one-sided in their direction.[1][2][10][11]
That 100% crowd-implied probability is consistent with how comparable Imperial matchups have been treated in the market: a larger, more established Brazilian side against a lesser-known Procyon roster, with preview sites and prediction pages assigning Imperial around 1.06–1.20 decimal odds and even 100% of Strafe user votes.[2][11][16] In practical terms, that means the market is reading this less as a balanced coin flip and more as a baseline expectation that Imperial advance in regulation series format.[2][11]
For traders, the key catalysts are still administrative rather than competitive: whether the fixture actually starts on schedule, whether the tournament keeps the listed round-1 timing, and whether any late bracket reshuffle, delay, or cancellation changes settlement conditions.[1][3][8][14] Current listings place the match on 3 August at 20:00 UTC / 16:00 EDT, but some regional schedules differ on local display times, so the decisive watchpoint is the official match status close to start time rather than the headline listing itself.[1][3][7][14]
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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