Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-3.5) vs Galorys (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-6.5) vs Galorys (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-3.5) vs Galorys (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-6.5) vs Galorys (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-3.5) vs Galorys (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: IMP (-1.5) vs Galorys (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Imperial and Galorys were due to meet in the BetBoom Storm group stage, and the latest live listings still point to a best-of-three being the key question rather than any walkover or postponement scenario. The market’s 0% YES price is far below the pre-match reading on match trackers, which have Imperial as the favourite; Bo3.gg listed Imperial at 1.31 to win the series, versus 1.75 for Galorys, with a 2-0 Imperial scoreline also the most favoured exact result.[1][12]
That gap is easier to read against the head-to-head record. Strafe’s match page says the teams have met 14 times, with Imperial winning 11 and Galorys three, and their most recent clash on 1 May 2026 ended 2-0 to Imperial.[13] Strafe also has Imperial higher in the CS2 rankings than Galorys and shows a heavy user lean towards Imperial, which fits the broader market shape even though this market has already collapsed to 0% YES.[13]
For traders, the immediate catalysts are operational rather than team news: whether the series starts on schedule, whether the organiser updates the bracket or stream page, and whether any delay pushes settlement towards the market’s 50-50 fallback. GosuGamers and VPEsports both list the fixture inside the Swiss group-stage schedule, while Bo3.gg notes live tournament data were not yet available at the time of posting, so schedule confirmation from the organiser remains the cleanest near-term signal.[10][12][1]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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