Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: PCY (-1.5) vs Grêmio Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Grêmio Esports (-3.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-3.5) vs Grêmio Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-3.5) vs Grêmio Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
Grêmio Esports and Procyon Gaming are still listed as a live BetBoom Storm Group Stage pairing, but the market’s 0% YES price is being read against an apparently completed result rather than an unresolved fixture. The underlying tournament pages show the group stage running from 3–11 August, and live match listings now place Grêmio and Procyon in the same Round 4 slot; at least one independent score page already records a 2–1 Grêmio win over Procyon on 9 August, which would explain why the contract is being priced as effectively closed to a fresh Grêmio win outcome.[1][2][4]
The historical frame here is straightforward: in this event family, Grêmio and Procyon have both been active enough in the group stage to create repeat comparables, and recent head-to-head data favours neither side as an automatic lock. Procyon’s prior meeting with Grêmio in the wider South American circuit went the other way, while Grêmio also arrived off a 0–2 loss to Keyd Stars in an earlier BetBoom Storm round, so traders have been treating this as a normal BO3 with real variance rather than a mismatch.[15][17]
For today’s outlook, the key catalysts are simple: whether the organiser’s schedule confirms the match state, whether any result page is updated as final, and whether the market remains tied to a played series or is forced into the no-contest logic if timing or completion is disputed. Polymarket still shows the market live with settlement within hours, but if the fixture is already finalised elsewhere and no further play is pending, the practical risk is not performance in-map, it is how the resolution engine interprets the official match record before the window closes.[3][9]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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