Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The FOKUS–Phantom semi-final is live territory now, with the market sitting at **100% YES** while the match is listed as a **best-of-three** in the Stake Ranked Episode 3 Closed Qualifier playoffs. Recent match pages show the fixture scheduled for **21 June** and already in progress, so the main near-term risk is no longer competitive uncertainty but whether the result is recorded cleanly before the settlement window closes.[2][3][6]

On form, the pre-match picture was broadly one-sided rather than balanced. FOKUS entered with **four wins from their last five** on Strafe and Dust2, while Phantom were also on **four wins from five**, but FOKUS were still rated the favourite by bookmakers and user polls leaned heavily their way, with Strafe voting at **88.6%** for FOKUS.[1][5] Comparable qualifier brackets in this event have also been straight Bo3 single-elimination ties, which reduces the chance of a drawn-out edge case but leaves room for map-level swings that do not usually move a market unless the match is abandoned or reclassified.[6][8]

For traders, the catalysts are operational rather than strategic: confirmation that the series finishes within the scheduled day, any official pause or restart, and whether the organisers post a walkover, cancellation, or technical default. GosuGamers currently has the match as **live**, which supports ordinary completion, but the payout logic still turns on whether a winner is formally determined before the seven-day delay rule or any non-played outcome is triggered.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.