Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs INOX Division (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-6.5) vs INOX Division (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-9.5) vs INOX Division (+9.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs INOX Division (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-9.5) vs INOX Division (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 39.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs 1WIN (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs INOX Division (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-6.5) vs INOX Division (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-9.5) vs INOX Division (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
Market context
The quarter-final between 1WIN and INOX Division is live or imminently due, and the market’s 100% crowd-implied YES is being set against a match that has already been slotted into the NODWIN Clutch Series playoffs window. Current listings place the fixture in a BO3 knockout context on 5 August, with live coverage pages and stream listings showing it as a scheduled playoff match rather than an open-ended event.[1][2][6][8]
The main historical frame is straightforward: these sides have already met in the summer, with 1WIN beating INOX Division 2-1 in a June playoff series, which is the cleanest recent head-to-head reference point.[3][5] More broadly, 1WIN’s recent NODWIN playoff record is stronger than INOX Division’s, with 1WIN winning the NODWIN Clutch Series #8 title in May, while INOX Division have also taken some playoff maps and series in the same circuit, including a 2-1 win over Betclic and a 2-1 win over SPARTA, so the favourite tag is real but not absolute.[11][14][15]
For traders, the immediate catalysts are simple: whether the match goes ahead on schedule, whether the official bracket and stream stay aligned, and whether there is any late roster or timing change before map veto starts.[1][2][6][8] Because the settlement rules treat a cancelled, tied, or over-seven-day delay as 50-50, the key risk is not just who wins but whether the fixture is completed under official tournament conditions; the market should stay pinned unless there is a disruption to the live playoff schedule or an unexpected administrative outcome.[6][8]
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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