WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 14?

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Market context

WTI crude oil surged 2.45% on 14 July 2026, closing at $80.05 per barrel amid escalating US–Iran hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump announcing a blockade on Iranian vessels and fresh US missile strikes targeting Iranian air defence and radar systems [1][5]. This sharp daily gain aligns with the market’s 100% crowd-implied probability for an “Up” resolution, as the price closed higher than the previous trading day’s close of $78.14 [1][4][6].

Historically, such single-day spikes during geopolitical shocks in the Hormuz corridor have often reversed within days once diplomatic channels reopen or shipping routes normalise, as seen in July when futures sank 5.51% after a memorandum of understanding was signed and the Strait reopened [11]. However, the current escalation involves direct military strikes and retaliatory attacks across the Gulf, suggesting the supply disruption may persist longer than past brief closures, supporting the sustained upward pressure reflected in today’s pricing [5].

Traders should monitor the US State Department’s statements on the Hormuz blockade, Iran’s retaliatory moves against Gulf vessels, and any updates from the EIA on shipment normalisation timelines, which it projects will not occur until early 2027 due to infrastructure damage [5][11]. The key catalysts include whether Iran attacks more commercial ships, if the US expands its naval presence, and any scheduled OPEC+ meetings that could adjust output in response to the crisis [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

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