What will Gold (GC) settle at in June?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Gold futures have pulled back sharply in the last 48 hours, settling near $4,030 on 25 June after a 4.6% five-day decline, driven by stronger U.S. economic data and a firmer dollar that reduced safe-haven demand[1][5]. Recent strength in May nonfarm payrolls and CPI rising to 4.2% amid Iran-related supply disruptions has lifted hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, weighing on gold prices that recently settled near $4,090 after peaking above $5,500 earlier in 2026[1].

Historically, similar 5% implied probabilities for gold settling in a specific range have coincided with periods of hawkish Fed rhetoric and rising Treasury yields, where prices often test lower brackets before central bank purchases provide underlying support[1]. In comparable 2026 cases, when gold pulled back from peaks above $5,500 amid reduced safe-haven flows following the U.S.-Iran interim agreement, prices stabilised near $4,320, framing the current $3,800–$4,600 trader-implied concentration as a realistic range for June settlement[1][2].

Traders should watch the final trading day of June for the official CME settlement price, noting that any shortened session due to market holidays will still use the published settlement for resolution[1]. Key catalysts include the May core PCE price index, which rose as expected and may keep the Fed from tightening further, alongside weekly jobless claims that fell to 215,000, indicating a stronger labour market than anticipated[6]. Persistent central bank purchases continue to provide a floor, but higher yields and a firmer dollar remain the primary downward pressures to monitor[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track What will Gold (GC) settle at in June? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.