What price will Bitcoin hit on May 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin is trading around the expiry level with only hours left before the 6am EDT settlement cutoff, and the crowd is still pricing this market at 0% for a YES outcome. That implies traders see no live path to the underlying index ending up at one of the listed strike prices by the fixing time, despite Bitcoin sitting near the upper end of recent ranges and CoinCodex flagging a short-term move towards the high-$70,000s to mid-$80,000s over the next few sessions.

That kind of zero pricing is usually a sign that the market is focused on where spot is likely to land at the exact fixing, not on broader intraday volatility. In comparable crypto expiry markets, the main driver is whether Bitcoin can make a late move through a round-number threshold before the benchmark is set; if it fails to do so, the contract resolves to the nearest out-of-the-money outcome. Robinhood says the settlement price is based on CF Benchmarks’ Real Time Index, using the average of 60 prices in the last minute before expiry, which reduces the impact of a brief spike or wick.

For traders watching the final hours, the key catalysts are any sudden move in spot BTC, large ETF-related flows, and broader risk sentiment across US trading. There is no scheduled Bitcoin-specific event driving the fix, so the path will mainly depend on market liquidity into the benchmark window rather than headlines. A sharp move in the final minute matters less than a sustained push into the averaging period.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on May 21? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.