What price will Bitcoin hit on May 19?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin spent the last 24 to 48 hours drifting in the high-$70,000s, with Statista putting the spot price at $78,135.01 on 17 May and Fortune citing $77,347.59 at 9:30 a.m. ET on 18 May. That leaves the market a little below the levels implied by several exchange-linked prediction contracts for 19 May, including Robinhood’s around $76,700 threshold and Coinbase’s $77,249.99 reference, so the short-term question is whether BTC can hold or reclaim those bands before the market’s measurement cut-off.

The recent range matters because Bitcoin has already shown large swings in 2026: SoFi’s history page puts the year’s high at $97,860.60 in January and the low at $60,074.20 in February. Against that backdrop, a 0% crowd-implied YES reading suggests traders are treating the event as either mispriced or effectively uninformative rather than expecting a decisive break to a specific price bucket. In comparable moves, the coin has often moved several thousand dollars within a day, so the relevant comparison is less the long-run trend and more whether the spot index remains pinned near the current zone through expiry.

Traders should watch the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index path into the settlement window, since both Robinhood and Coinbase use CF-based pricing and sample near-expiry prints rather than a single exchange quote. That makes liquidity, funding-rate pressure, and any overnight move in US equity futures and the dollar important, as these can quickly push BTC through contract thresholds. Fortune’s latest update and the live exchange calendars show no obvious event-driven catalyst from Bitcoin itself, so the main risk is a broader crypto risk-on or risk-off move before the 19 May pricing window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.