What price will Bitcoin hit on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin was trading just above **$64,900** on 8 August, after a narrow session that kept it inside roughly the mid-$64,000s to low-$65,000s range rather than breaking out decisively.[1][3] Recent daily data also show a modestly firmer backdrop: Bitcoin finished 7 August at **$64,878** and posted a small weekly gain, which leaves the market looking more range-bound than momentum-driven heading into the settlement window.[2][7]

That matters for reading the current crowd-implied **0% YES** on a threshold-style outcome: when spot is clustering far from the strike and intraday moves are only a few hundred dollars, the market tends to price the event as unlikely unless there is a fresh catalyst strong enough to force a fast repricing.[1][5][14] Comparable recent snapshots point to the same pattern, with Bitcoin spending time around the mid-$60,000s rather than trading near levels that would normally support a much higher price band.[3][8]

For traders, the key watchpoints are any late-session moves in US risk assets, renewed ETF-flow headlines, and macro prints that change dollar liquidity expectations, because Bitcoin has been reacting to broad market tone as much as crypto-specific news.[15][7] The most immediate market-specific reference point is the live prediction-market pricing itself, which already reflects a strong consensus around the lower price band for this date.[6][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews What price will Bitcoin hit on August 8? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.