What price will Bitcoin hit on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin is trading in a tight, market-led range rather than making a clean breakout, with prediction venues clustering the day’s expected outcome around the mid-$60,000s. Robinhood’s live event has the highest-priced band at $64,750 to $64,999, while several forecasting pages put today’s BTC estimate between roughly $65,200 and $65,600, which is broadly consistent with a market that has not priced in a decisive move higher in the next few hours.[2][5][1]

That makes the current **0% YES** price look like an extreme read rather than a consensus view on direction, because comparable forecasts for early-to-mid August generally still centre on the $64,000–$67,500 area. Polymarket’s Bitcoin-on-August-10 market showed 64,000–66,000 as the dominant bucket at 88%, with 66,000–68,000 next at 9%, while CoinGecko’s prediction data assigned a 100% downside support probability at $65,000 and a 57.5% chance of $67,500 by August.[7][11]

For the next session, traders will be watching whether BTC holds the low-to-mid $65,000s or slips back into the $64,000 handle, because that range is where most short-horizon models and market venues are concentrated. The main catalysts are scheduled macro releases and crypto-specific flow data rather than protocol events: recent coverage has highlighted post-Fed positioning, ETF flow watch, and the coming Clarity Act timetable as the nearer-term drivers of volatility.[14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.