What price will Bitcoin hit May 25-31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action over the final week of May hinges on macroeconomic data releases and Federal Reserve communications scheduled for that fortnight. The 4% probability reflects the market's assessment that Bitcoin will reach an unspecified price threshold during 25–31 May 2026—a threshold not disclosed in the market terms. Without knowing the target price, traders are pricing in either a narrow band around current spot levels or a significant move that would require extraordinary volatility within a seven-day window.

Historical precedent suggests Bitcoin's weekly price swings rarely exceed 15–20% outside periods of acute financial stress or major policy announcements. The May 2026 settlement window falls between the typical spring earnings season and early summer, a period that has historically seen moderate volatility. Comparable seven-day windows in 2023 and 2024 produced moves of 8–12% on average, with outliers occurring only around Federal Reserve rate decisions or significant geopolitical events. The 4% probability implies traders expect conditions similar to those baseline scenarios rather than tail-risk outcomes.

Catalysts to monitor include any unscheduled Federal Reserve communications, employment data releases in early June that could influence late-May positioning, and developments in cryptocurrency regulation or institutional adoption announcements. Bitcoin's correlation with equity futures and Treasury yields remains the primary transmission mechanism for macro shocks. Traders should track whether the settlement threshold sits above or below the May 1–24 trading range, as that distinction determines whether the market is pricing in breakout risk or consolidation.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.