Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Sam Bankman-Fried has formally petitioned President Trump for a pardon, yet the White House has shown no shift in favour of meaningful relief as of June 2026, keeping the crowd-implied probability of a July 31 pardon at a mere 2% [4]. This request, lodged through the Department of Justice’s Office of the Pardon Attorney, remains pending with no additional disclosure on its status [1].

Historically, presidential pardons for high-profile financial fraudsters are exceptionally rare, particularly when the individual is serving a 25-year sentence for collapse-related crimes [2]. Comparable cases, such as the recent unconditional pardon granted to Stephen E. Buyer, involved non-criminal or administrative matters rather than severe fraud convictions [7]. The 2% probability reflects this stark precedent, as Trump has not previously commuted sentences for FTX founders or similar cryptocurrency executives.

Traders should monitor the White House’s potential announcement of pardons for America’s 250th birthday in July, which could see up to 250 individuals pardoned, though SBF’s inclusion remains uncertain [9]. Crucially, the ongoing appeals of SBF’s conviction continue to complicate any executive clemency, as legal challenges may delay or block a pardon [4]. No credible reporting has emerged indicating Trump’s intent to intervene, making a July 31 resolution to “No” increasingly likely unless a sudden policy shift occurs.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.