What price will Bitcoin hit on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action over the past 48 hours has remained subdued, with the asset trading in a narrow band around $43,000–$44,000 as institutional positioning ahead of the US Federal Reserve's May policy decision solidifies. The settlement window extends to 1 June 2026, giving traders a full calendar month to navigate what has historically been a volatile period for crypto assets. Current crowd probability sits at 0%, suggesting the market has assigned negligible odds to any specific price target being reached by month-end—a reflection of genuine uncertainty rather than consensus bearishness.

Historical precedent offers limited direct comparison given Bitcoin's structural evolution, but May volatility patterns from prior cycles show typical intra-month swings of 8–15% are commonplace. The 2021 May crash saw a 50% drawdown, whilst 2023 May saw steady accumulation phases. What distinguishes the current environment is the absence of major regulatory shocks or macro catalysts scheduled for early May; the Fed decision and subsequent inflation data releases will likely anchor volatility bands more than any crypto-specific event.

Traders should monitor three dependencies: the Fed's interest rate guidance (scheduled mid-May), any significant options expiry clustering that could trigger gamma-driven moves, and institutional custody flows reported by major exchanges. Recent Glassnode data shows whale accumulation patterns have softened, whilst on-chain transaction volumes remain below 2024 averages. A sustained break above $47,000 or below $40,000 would require either macro risk-off sentiment or a positive catalyst tied to spot Bitcoin ETF inflows.

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.