Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction Today Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Prediction Today → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Prediction Today → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Prediction Today → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Prediction Today → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Prediction Today → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Today.
Active sub-markets
Market context
Bitcoin has spent the past few weeks lower and more volatile, with mainstream price trackers showing it around the low-$60,000s in early June after it was still above $72,000 on 1 June. That leaves this market looking like a *today’s outlook* read on whether BTC can recover enough, before the settlement window closes, to hit the relevant strike level rather than merely stabilise below it.[2][3][1]
The current 0% crowd-implied YES price suggests participants see the target as out of reach from the present spot level, which is consistent with recent off-platform forecasts clustering near the mid-$60,000s for late June rather than a sharp breakout. Comparable prediction pages are also pointing to only modest near-term moves, with one Binance forecast for 22 June at about $64,039 and another model placing 22 June nearer $64,573, both well within a tight band rather than a surge.[4][1] Against that backdrop, the market is effectively pricing in continuation, not a late-month repricing.
For traders watching catalysts, the key variables are any fresh macro headlines that move risk assets, spot ETF flow data, and liquidity conditions across crypto exchanges, because Bitcoin has remained sensitive to broad market swings rather than a single protocol-specific event. The most relevant near-term dependency is whether BTC can reclaim and hold levels above the mid-$60,000s quickly enough for momentum to build; without that, the path to the higher June strikes remains narrow. Recent commentary has also underscored that even bullish long-run Bitcoin calls still acknowledge macro pressure in the short term.[5][3]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?
- Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
Trade What price will Bitcoin hit on June 22? on Prediction Today
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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