What price will Bitcoin hit on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin is trading around the mid-$64,000s after a modest rebound from the prior session, with YCharts putting the June 21 spot level at $64,240.23, up 1.14% on the day.[4] That places the market close to Robinhood’s strike ladder, where the main reference level for this event is $63,700 or above, and a higher band at $66,900 or above is priced much lower, which shows traders are still assigning very little weight to a sharp late-session breakout.[1]

For context, Bitcoin has spent much of 2026 in a wide range rather than a clean trend: SoFi’s year-to-date summary shows a January high near $97,860 and a February low near $60,074, while also noting swings back into the $65,000 to $73,000 area in early March.[7] That kind of history matters for a same-day price market, because it means a move of a few per cent can quickly shift which thresholds look reachable, but the current crowd-implied 0% YES suggests the market is not expecting a decisive upside print beyond the selected level before settlement.[1][4]

The main catalysts are still macro and market-structure driven rather than Bitcoin-specific. Traders will watch whether the spot price can hold above the nearby Robinhood threshold into the final hours, since the contract uses CF Benchmarks’ Real Time Index and settles on the average of the last 60 RTI prints before expiry.[1] Any move in broader risk assets, a large exchange-led flow, or late crypto policy headlines could matter, but with no obvious scheduled Bitcoin event in the data provided, the key dependency is simply whether BTC can sustain a late-session push or fade back towards the low-$64,000s.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on June 21? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.