Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

Platform comparison

Market context

Credible Finance’s curated raise on MetaDAO officially launched today, with the project already securing $2.315m in soft institutional commits against a target range of $2m–$4m[1]. The 99% YES probability reflects near-certainty that the upper threshold will be breached before the August 2026 deadline, driven by the live status of the fundraise and the immediate institutional backing already visible on the official page[1][8].

Historical MetaDAO raises show that committed figures often exceed initial targets once soft commitments convert; Umbra’s October 2025 raise attracted $155m in committed capital despite electing to raise only $3m, illustrating the platform’s capacity to absorb far more demand than founders initially seek[2]. This precedent suggests that the current 99% probability is not merely speculative but grounded in the platform’s demonstrated ability to convert soft commits into hard commitments rapidly, especially when institutional interest is already confirmed.

Traders should monitor Credible’s official sale page for real-time updates on the “committed” figure, as the market resolves based on whether this number hits the title threshold before the settlement window closes[1]. Key catalysts include any announcements from Credible’s CEO regarding valuation caps or minimum thresholds, with the project raising at a maximum $9m valuation cap and a defined minimum[9]. The live launch today, powered by Solana, marks the primary dependency for commitment growth, and any delays or pauses would directly impact the probability trajectory[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.