Squid FDV above … one day after launch?

Platform comparison

Market context

SquidRouter’s token sale is already live, so the market’s focus has shifted from *if* a token appears to *how aggressively* it is priced once it starts trading. The crowd is still leaning heavily to the upper end of the range, with the leading Polymarket outcome at 89% for $30M and 85% for $40M, while one monitoring feed shows a much less bullish 44% for $100M, highlighting how quickly early pricing can fragment around launch mechanics and liquidity expectations.[3][9]

For comparison, FDV is simply token price multiplied by total or maximum supply, so day-one valuations can move sharply on modest changes in price if supply is large or unlocks are opaque.[5][12] That is why first-day ranges on new crypto launches often settle well below the headline targets people quote before trading begins, even when underlying demand looks strong.[12][13] The current 96% implied probability for “Yes” is therefore more a statement that a launch is expected than a precise read on where the opening FDV lands.[2][7]

Traders should watch the official launch timetable, whether the token is publicly tradable immediately, and any tokenomics disclosures that clarify total supply, vesting and circulation at TGE, because those are the inputs that determine the FDV one day later.[3][5][12] If Squid publishes a fixed supply and exchange listings arrive quickly, the first price print will matter disproportionately; if instead liquidity is thin or access is delayed, the measured FDV at 4:00 pm ET the next day can diverge from early social-media expectations.[3][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.