Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 has cleared the House but remains stalled in the Senate, with no full floor vote scheduled as of mid-July 2026. This legislative bottleneck explains the current 40% crowd-implied probability for passage before the end of 2026, reflecting uncertainty over whether the Senate Banking Committee will prioritise H.R.3633 over its own competing draft, the Responsible Financial Innovation Act [4][8].

Historically, crypto market structure bills face significant Senate friction despite bipartisan House support. The FIT21 Act passed the House in 2024 with similar cross-party backing but has not yet been signed into law, illustrating how Senate committee dynamics often delay or derail such legislation [2]. The CLARITY Act’s current trajectory mirrors FIT21’s early hurdles, suggesting that the 40% probability is a rational assessment of the difficulty in securing a full Senate vote and presidential signature within the remaining 17 months.

Traders should monitor the Senate Banking Committee’s agenda for a scheduled hearing or vote on H.R.3633, as well as any public statements from Chairman French Hill or Senate leadership regarding crypto prioritisation. A recent report notes the committee has released a discussion draft of the RFIA, which could compete for legislative time and resources [8]. Additionally, the White House’s stance on digital asset regulation and any upcoming congressional recesses will influence the likelihood of a 2026 signing [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.