Bitcoin price on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin has spent the last 24–48 hours drifting around the mid-$64,000s, with recent prints clustered between roughly $64,000 and $65,300 and a modest gain on the week. August has also started with a relatively narrow trading range, after a month-to-date close of $64,878 on 7 August and an intraday high of $65,332, which suggests the market is still treating this as a range trade rather than a breakout attempt.[1][3][12]

That framing matters because the market’s current 0% yes price sits well below the recent spot range and far below the levels implied by many published August forecasts, which generally place Bitcoin closer to the mid-to-high $60,000s by month-end. Comparable trading windows in this price band have tended to produce small daily moves rather than decisive jumps, and the current set-up leaves the noon Binance close on 9 August more dependent on intraday liquidity than on any single directional thesis.[14][16][17]

The near-term catalysts are the usual ones for a one-minute candle outcome: US session risk appetite, any sharp move in equities or the dollar, and crypto-specific flows that can push BTC through local support or resistance within minutes. There is no major scheduled Bitcoin protocol event tied to this settlement window, so traders will be watching broad market headlines and any fresh macro data or policy commentary that shifts the tone before noon ET; recent coverage has already pointed to August’s seasonally softer tone and a still-bearish technical structure.[17][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.