Bitcoin above 2026 on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action over the past 48 hours has remained volatile within established ranges, with spot prices fluctuating between $40,000 and $45,000 depending on market sentiment and macroeconomic headlines. The 100% crowd probability on this market reflects confidence that Bitcoin will trade above a threshold price at noon ET on 31 May 2026—a settlement window nearly 18 months away. Such certainty in long-dated markets typically indicates either an extremely low strike price relative to current spot levels, or a structural assumption that Bitcoin's floor has been established well below the resolution target.

Historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin's noon ET closes on Binance rarely deviate dramatically from daily open-to-close ranges, though the 1-minute candle methodology introduces microstructure risk. During periods of elevated volatility—such as post-FOMC announcement days or major regulatory announcements—the specific noon ET candle can close 2–5% away from the daily average. The current crowd assessment appears to price in minimal downside risk over an 18-month horizon, which aligns with Bitcoin's historical tendency to recover from intra-year drawdowns.

Traders monitoring this settlement should watch for major catalyst dates: US Federal Reserve policy decisions, potential spot Bitcoin ETF regulatory changes, and significant macroeconomic data releases that could trigger liquidation cascades on leveraged positions. Recent reporting from Bloomberg and Reuters has highlighted institutional accumulation patterns, though these do not guarantee specific price levels at predetermined times. The resolution hinges on Binance's recorded close price for the 12:00 ET 1-minute candle alone, making exchange-specific liquidity conditions and order flow at that precise moment material to outcome.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.