July Inflation US - Annual

Platform comparison

Market context

The latest CPI print showed the annual rate easing to **3.5% in June** from **4.2% in May**, after a sharp monthly fall driven mainly by cheaper energy, while core CPI also cooled to **2.6%**. That gives the July 2026 market a lower starting point than the spring spike, but still leaves inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s target and sensitive to any rebound in fuel, shelter or services prices.[2][7][9]

The current **2% YES** pricing implies the market sees a very low chance of July 2026 CPI landing at a level that clears the contract’s threshold. Comparable recent prints matter more than long-run averages here: June’s drop followed the highest year-on-year reading since April 2023, so traders are effectively weighing whether the recent disinflation was a one-off energy effect or the start of a broader downtrend.[2][4][9] On the monthly path, the BLS series can swing quickly when gasoline reverses, so a single hot or cool release can materially reshape expectations.[7][8]

For catalysts, the main event is the **BLS CPI release for July 2026 on 12 August at 8:30 a.m. ET**, which will settle the market directly.[1] In the run-up, traders will watch energy prices, housing-related components and any large shifts in the broader macro backdrop, including whether tariff or supply-chain effects keep showing up in core goods and services. The June release already showed headline inflation turning negative on the month while core eased only modestly, so the next print will be read for confirmation rather than as a clean break.[2][8][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.