Trump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The latest concrete China-related trade signals have been about implementation, not fresh tariff relief: the White House says the Beijing summit delivered a package on rare earths, Boeing aircraft, and agricultural purchases, but it did not say the U.S. had cut, removed or suspended any tariffs on China. That keeps the market at a low single-digit implied chance, because the resolution needs a definitive tariff announcement, not general talk of stabilising trade ties or widening market access.

That is consistent with recent precedent. In earlier Trump–Xi meetings, the headline deliverables have tended to be purchase commitments, export controls, or truce extensions rather than outright tariff rollbacks. The U.S.-China relationship has often moved through managed trade arrangements, where both sides claim gains without changing the tariff structure in a way that cleanly resolves a market like this one. The 3% YES price also reflects how unusual it would be for Trump to announce a China-specific tariff reduction after the summit has already passed.

For traders now, the key catalysts are any post-summit White House readout, Treasury or USTR statement, and follow-on tariff notices in the Federal Register. Reuters-style reporting on implementation details matters only if it cites a formal decision on Chinese goods, because language about “de-escalation”, “frameworks” or “future talks” will not qualify. The main dependency is whether the administration chooses to convert the summit into a tariff move before the market closes, rather than leaving the deal confined to purchases and regulatory access.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.