Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely depressed, with recent transit data showing no meaningful recovery towards the 60-vessel-per-day threshold that would trigger a "Yes" resolution. The waterway has faced sustained pressure from regional tensions, including Houthi attacks on commercial vessels and broader geopolitical friction, which have prompted shipping companies to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope despite significantly longer transit times and higher fuel costs. Current 7-day moving averages sit well below historical norms of 80–90 daily transits, indicating the disruption persists as a structural constraint rather than a temporary spike.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the scale of normalisation required within eighteen months. Previous disruptions to Hormuz traffic—including the 2019 tanker attacks and the 2022 Iranian tensions—took 6–12 months to fully resolve, and those occurred without the sustained military dimension present today. The current blockade-adjacent environment differs materially: shipping insurers have repriced risk, major carriers have locked in alternative routes, and the incentive structure for rerouting remains economically rational even as fuel premiums persist.

Traders monitoring this market should track announcements from the International Maritime Organization regarding Hormuz corridor safety assessments, any ceasefire agreements affecting Houthi operations, and quarterly earnings calls from major container lines revealing whether they plan Hormuz route resumption. The US Fifth Fleet's operational posture and any formal shipping corridor protection agreements would also signal shifting risk calculus. Without a decisive geopolitical shift, the 60-vessel threshold appears unlikely to materialise before mid-2026.

Methodology

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