"Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The latest shift in the last 24–48 hours is that *Toy Story 5* has moved from a strong franchise return to a near-record domestic opener, with industry estimates clustering around **$145 million to $150 million** and some late commentary stretching as high as **$160 million to $175 million**. That is well above the 6% crowd-implied probability for the market’s YES side, so the current price is still treating a top-end opening as a low-probability outcome rather than the base case.[1][6]

For context, the franchise benchmark is *Toy Story 4*, which opened to **$120 million**, while *Toy Story 3* launched at **$110 million**; both are below the current consensus range being discussed for the new film.[1] If the numbers land near the low end of forecasts, the market could still sit in a bracket below the most aggressive “record” talk, but a result in the mid- to high-$100 millions would make this the biggest domestic opening in the series and among the year’s strongest overall.[1]

Traders should watch two things: whether the final reported weekend figure on The Numbers includes any late adjustments, and whether same-day box office chatter continues to support the preview-night momentum that is already being cited as unusually strong for an animated release.[2] The film opened domestically on 19 June, giving the first clean weekend read-through by 21 June, while the market’s settlement rule means the final The Numbers “Daily Box Office Performance” total, not studio estimates, is the figure that matters.[7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.