Bitcoin price on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price action over the past 48 hours has remained within established trading ranges, with BTC/USDT hovering near $63,000–$65,000 across major exchanges. The settlement window for this market extends to May 2026, meaning traders are pricing in Bitcoin's noon ET close on a date approximately 18 months forward. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme uncertainty about predicting such a distant price point or insufficient trading volume to establish meaningful odds, a common pattern for markets with extended settlement windows where near-term volatility dominates trader attention.

Historical precedent shows Bitcoin's 12-month forward prices typically trade within 15–30% of spot depending on funding conditions and macroeconomic expectations. Comparable long-dated markets on Bitcoin have resolved across wide ranges; the absence of consensus probability here reflects genuine difficulty in anchoring expectations that far ahead. Institutional adoption cycles, regulatory shifts, and halving events (the next occurs in April 2024) traditionally influence multi-year price trajectories, though predicting specific daily closes remains inherently noisy.

Traders monitoring this market should track Federal Reserve policy announcements and inflation data through 2025–2026, as these shape broader risk appetite for volatile assets. Bitcoin's correlation with equity indices has strengthened during recent bull runs, making S&P 500 momentum a secondary indicator. On-chain metrics including exchange inflows and long/short positioning will provide tactical signals closer to May 2026, though current illiquidity in this market suggests limited near-term price discovery.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.