Bitcoin price on May 20?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin has been weaker over the past two sessions, with reports placing it around $77,000 on 19 May after a drop below that level, while Binance’s own price output for 20 May sits in roughly the same mid-$70,000s band. That keeps the market close to the lower end of the recent range rather than in the higher $78,000-plus territory seen earlier in the month. With the crowd assigning 0% to YES, the pricing implies traders see the noon ET Binance close as needing a clean move above the threshold rather than a marginal finish.

Recent history argues for treating the current level as part of a broader consolidation after a volatile first half of May. Bitcoin was around $80,120 on 15 May, then slipped to about $77,348 on 18 May, and Statista’s daily series shows it at 78,135.01 on 17 May and 79,068.82 on 16 May. That sequence matters because this market resolves on a single 1-minute Binance candle close at 12:00 ET, so intraday swings can be decisive even when the broader tape looks stable.

The main catalysts to watch are the same ones that drove the move lower: risk sentiment, geopolitics, and any fresh macro or crypto-specific headlines during the US session. The Octagon AI and Fortune reports both pointed to geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and the unwinding of ETF-related support as pressures on Bitcoin. For this market, the important dependency is not the day’s high or low but where BTC/USDT is trading at noon ET on Binance, since that single close determines the bracket.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on May 20? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.