Bitcoin price on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin has spent the past day hovering in the low-to-mid $62,000s, with recent quoted levels around $62,443 to $62,622 and a 24-hour move that is close to flat to slightly lower. That leaves the market sitting well above the market’s current crowd-implied 0% Yes price, but still within a range where a modest intraday swing can matter because this contract settles on the Binance 1-minute **12:00 ET** candle close, not a daily average.[1][8][6]

Recent trading gives a useful frame: Bitcoin opened July near $59,060 and, by early July 2026, had already moved back into the $63,000 area after a volatile month. Published July 31 prediction-market lines are concentrated around the $60,000 to $64,000 zone, with one venue showing the $62,000–$64,000 bracket as the busiest area and another pricing nearby upside levels such as $63,000 and $63,500, which suggests the market has been treating today as a range day rather than a breakout day.[4][3][2]

For a trader watching the noon ET print, the main catalysts are the US cash-session flow into the close, any late-session macro headlines, and crypto-specific volatility that can quickly move Binance spot pricing in a single minute. CoinDesk and similar outlets have recently highlighted how tightly Bitcoin has been trading around the low-$60,000s, so even a brief risk-on or risk-off move into midday can decide whether the candle finishes inside a lower bracket or pushes up into the next one.[7][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.