Bitcoin price on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin is trading near $64,100 as the settlement clock ticks toward noon ET on 11 July, with the market’s 0% YES probability for the highest bracket reflecting a consensus that prices will not breach the upper threshold. The live Binance BTC/USDT close sits at $64,119.34, just inside the 62,000–64,000 range that Polymarket traders assign a 56% chance to, while the 64,000–66,000 band holds 30% [1][7].

Historically, mid-year Bitcoin closes have clustered tightly around the 50-day moving average when the 200-day trend remains upward, as it has since 4 July 2026 [3]. In June 2026, the asset closed at $63,606 after a 1.30% daily gain, staying within a 52-week range of $57,832–$126,186, suggesting that current pricing aligns with recent seasonal stability rather than breakout momentum [5].

Traders should monitor the US inflation data release scheduled for 11 July at 8:30 ET, which often triggers immediate volatility in crypto futures, and watch for any unexpected shifts in spot volume ahead of the 12:00 ET candle close [3]. The 24-hour trading volume of $26.3B indicates active participation, but the bearish four-hour trend and downward-sloping 50-day average suggest limited upside pressure before settlement [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.