In this guide
Profitable prediction market traders don't trade randomly — they follow a systematic weekly routine that allocates research time efficiently. Here's a proven 5-hour weekly framework.
Monday: Calendar & Market Scanning (1 hour)
- Review upcoming week's key events: Fed meetings, elections, sports events, data releases
- Scan PolyGram for new markets opened since last week
- Identify 3-5 markets where you have potential edge this week
- Check existing positions — any new information requiring updates?
Tuesday-Thursday: Deep Research (2 hours)
- Research each identified market thoroughly
- Form your independent probability estimate before checking market prices
- Compare your estimate to market price — only enter if gap is significant
- Calculate Kelly position size for each trade you decide to enter
Friday: Execution & Review (1 hour)
- Execute this week's positions during high-liquidity hours
- Review any markets resolving this week — record outcomes vs your predictions
- Update your calibration spreadsheet
Weekend: Performance Analysis (1 hour)
- Calculate week's P&L and running Brier score
- Identify any systematic errors in your recent predictions
- Read one relevant research paper or market analysis piece in your focus domain
FAQ
- Can I be profitable trading prediction markets part-time?
- Yes — many profitable traders spend under 10 hours per week. Quality of research matters more than quantity of time.
- What tools do I need for this routine?
- PolyGram app for trading, a spreadsheet for tracking, and your domain research sources. No special tools required.