In this guide
Prediction markets focused on science and technology draw participation from a distinctive cohort — academic researchers, professional engineers, and technical journalists capable of evaluating scientific breakthroughs with greater speed than typical market participants. These venues place a premium on specialised knowledge and technical acumen.
Active Science & Technology Prediction Markets (2026)
Space Exploration
- SpaceX Starship reaches orbit with payload: ~72-78%
- Artemis Moon landing in 2026: ~35-42%
- SpaceX Mars mission launch before 2030: ~55-62%
- Commercial space station operational in 2026: ~28-34%
Artificial Intelligence
- AGI claimed by major lab before 2028: ~22-28%
- AI system passes ARC-AGI benchmark (100%): ~38-44%
- EU AI Act High-Risk classification of LLMs: ~62-68%
Biotechnology & Medicine
- CRISPR gene therapy approved for new indication in US: ~65-72%
- GLP-1 drug market exceeds $150B annual revenue: ~55-62%
- Alzheimer's treatment showing 50%+ disease modification: ~28-34%
Clean Energy
- Nuclear fusion net energy gain sustained for 60+ seconds: ~35-42%
- Global solar capacity exceeds 5 TW: ~65-70%
- Solid-state battery in commercial EV by major automaker: ~38-44%
Edge Sources in Science/Tech Markets
- Preprint repositories (arXiv, bioRxiv): frontier research findings made available prior to formal peer-review processes
- Patent submissions: technological breakthroughs frequently leave a paper trail through patent applications
- Regulatory approval schedules: FDA, EMA timelines governing pharmaceutical and biotech product launches
- Technical conference presentations: public disclosures from SpaceX, NASA, and major technology firms regarding future plans
FAQ
- How do science prediction markets resolve?
- Resolution relies upon independently verifiable documentation: company announcements, scholarly journals, official regulatory decisions, or established news organisations (AP, Reuters).
- Are there niche science markets not listed on PolyGram?
- PolyGram concentrates on widely-followed science markets. Specialist or obscure topics may find more options through Manifold Markets, which operates with play-money contracts and permits user-generated markets.
- Do researchers trade prediction markets about their own field?
- Absolutely — and they typically possess the sharpest informational advantage. Consensus views emerging from the research community (evident at symposia and conferences) frequently move ahead of market valuations by several weeks.