Science & Technology Prediction Markets 2026: Space, AI & Biotech
Science and technology prediction markets attract some of the most knowledgeable participants — researchers, engineers, and science journalists who can process technical developments faster than general market participants. These markets reward deep domain expertise.
Active Science & Technology Prediction Markets (2026)
Space Exploration
- SpaceX Starship reaches orbit with payload: ~72-78%
- Artemis Moon landing in 2026: ~35-42%
- SpaceX Mars mission launch before 2030: ~55-62%
- Commercial space station operational in 2026: ~28-34%
Artificial Intelligence
- AGI claimed by major lab before 2028: ~22-28%
- AI system passes ARC-AGI benchmark (100%): ~38-44%
- EU AI Act High-Risk classification of LLMs: ~62-68%
Biotechnology & Medicine
- CRISPR gene therapy approved for new indication in US: ~65-72%
- GLP-1 drug market exceeds $150B annual revenue: ~55-62%
- Alzheimer's treatment showing 50%+ disease modification: ~28-34%
Clean Energy
- Nuclear fusion net energy gain sustained for 60+ seconds: ~35-42%
- Global solar capacity exceeds 5 TW: ~65-70%
- Solid-state battery in commercial EV by major automaker: ~38-44%
Edge Sources in Science/Tech Markets
- Preprint servers (arXiv, bioRxiv): cutting-edge research before peer review
- Patent filings: technology milestones often preceded by patent activity
- Regulatory pipeline: FDA, EMA approval timelines for biotech
- Engineering conference presentations: SpaceX, NASA, and tech company roadmaps
FAQ
- How do science prediction markets resolve?
- Markets use publicly verifiable sources: official press releases, peer-reviewed publications, government regulatory announcements, or major news wire reports (AP, Reuters).
- Are there niche science markets not listed on PolyGram?
- PolyGram lists high-interest science markets. For very niche topics, Manifold Markets (play money) has more user-created markets.
- Do researchers trade prediction markets about their own field?
- Yes — and they often have the most reliable edge. Research community consensus (visible at conferences) often leads market prices by weeks.