In this guide
Key takeaway: Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market where participants trade YES/NO shares on real-world events using USDC on the Polygon blockchain. Settlement occurs automatically via smart contracts.
How does Polymarket work? Fundamentally, Polymarket functions as a prediction marketplace: rather than wagering against a bookmaker's spread, you exchange positions with other participants who hold different views on outcomes. Market prices continuously evolve to reflect aggregate participant sentiment — shifting instantly as fresh information emerges.
The basics: prediction markets
Prediction markets enable you to acquire shares representing specific outcomes. Each share is worth $1 upon YES resolution, or $0 upon NO resolution. Purchasing a YES share at $0.40 indicates your assessment that the event has a 40% likelihood of occurring. Success doubles your capital; failure means forfeiting your investment.
Polymarket differs from conventional bookmakers by operating without a built-in margin (the "vig"). Participant supply and demand alone determine pricing.
How Polymarket uses blockchain
Polymarket operates via the Polygon blockchain (an Ethereum layer-2 solution). This architecture delivers:
- Complete on-chain transparency and auditability of all activity
- Automated execution of funding, trading, and settlement through smart contracts
- Elimination of centralised control over assets or market outcomes
- Rapid settlement completing within minutes rather than extended periods
USDC: the currency of Polymarket
Polymarket exclusively accepts USDC (USD Coin), a stablecoin maintaining a fixed 1:1 relationship with the US dollar. Your trading account remains insulated from cryptocurrency price fluctuations — each USDC unit consistently equals $1.
How markets resolve
Upon event conclusion, Polymarket employs the UMA Oracle (Universal Market Access) for market settlement. An individual submits the verified outcome; a 2-hour challenge period follows; absent objections, settlement becomes binding. Contested resolutions proceed to UMA token-holder arbitration — a decentralised dispute mechanism.
Getting started on Polymarket
- Create an account — register via email and complete identity verification requirements
- Deposit USDC — fund through MoonPay, conventional bank transfer, or existing cryptocurrency holdings
- Browse markets — explore offerings spanning elections, athletics, digital assets, entertainment and beyond
- Buy shares — select YES or NO and specify your investment amount
- Track and exit — liquidate holdings whenever desired prior to market resolution
PolyGram streamlines this workflow through an intuitive mobile-optimised platform and straightforward email authentication. Start trading on PolyGram →
Why Polymarket prices are accurate
Prediction markets have repeatedly demonstrated superior forecasting performance relative to conventional surveys and specialist analysis. Throughout the 2024 US election cycle, Polymarket's probability assessments surpassed accuracy levels from leading polling organisations. The mechanism is straightforward: financial exposure compels rigorous evaluation.