In this guide
Key takeaway: Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market where participants acquire YES/NO shares on real-world occurrences using USDC on the Polygon blockchain. Automated smart contracts manage all settlement processes.
What is Polymarket fundamentally? Polymarket functions as a decentralised prediction marketplace: rather than wagering against a bookmaker's spread, you exchange positions with other market participants who hold different views. Market prices continuously evolve to reflect the aggregate probability assessment of the community — shifting instantly as fresh information emerges.
The basics: prediction markets
In a prediction market, you acquire shares representing possible outcomes. Each share yields $1 upon YES resolution, or $0 upon NO resolution. Purchasing a YES share at 40 cents ($0.40) indicates your belief that the event has a 40% likelihood of occurring. A correct prediction doubles your initial investment. An incorrect one results in total loss of your capital.
Polymarket differs from conventional bookmakers by eliminating the vigorish (the "vig"). Prices emerge purely from the interaction of buyer and seller demand in the marketplace.
How Polymarket uses blockchain
Polymarket operates atop the Polygon blockchain (a layer-2 scaling solution extending Ethereum). This architecture delivers:
- Complete transparency and on-chain verifiability of all activity
- Autonomous execution of deposits, trading operations, and settlement via smart contracts
- Elimination of Polymarket operator control over user funds or market outcomes
- Rapid settlement completion within minutes rather than extended periods
USDC: the currency of Polymarket
Trading exclusively occurs in USDC (USD Coin), a stablecoin maintaining a 1:1 correspondence with the US dollar. Your trading account remains insulated from cryptocurrency price fluctuations — one USDC perpetually equals one dollar.
How markets resolve
Upon determination of an event's outcome, Polymarket leverages the UMA Oracle (Universal Market Access) to finalise market settlements. An appointed "proposer" announces the result; a 2-hour challenge period follows; absent objections, the settlement becomes binding. Should disputes arise, UMA token holders participate in decentralised arbitration to determine the final outcome.
Getting started on Polymarket
- Establish your account — register via email and satisfy identity verification requirements
- Fund your account with USDC — utilise MoonPay, direct bank transfer, or transfer from an existing cryptocurrency wallet
- Explore available markets — discover opportunities spanning politics, athletics, digital assets, entertainment and beyond
- Acquire shares — select YES or NO and specify your investment amount
- Monitor and liquidate — exit your holdings whenever you choose before the market concludes
PolyGram streamlines this workflow through a mobile-optimised platform and straightforward email authentication. Start trading on PolyGram →
Why Polymarket prices are accurate
Prediction markets have repeatedly surpassed traditional polling methodologies and specialist commentary in forecast precision. Throughout the 2024 US election cycle, Polymarket's likelihood assessments demonstrated superior accuracy relative to conventional polling organisations. The mechanism driving this performance: financial stakes compel participants toward rigorous, unbiased evaluation.